That “always darkest before the dawn” thing is the rule in paper pricing. “Need” has no impact on pricing, neither did the Black Liquor credits, and costs are of no consequence (except as costs relate to closures). So the legitimate question, when AbitibiBowater announced a $60/ton coated groundwood price increase in late February (for April 1), was whether this was an increase based on “need” or an increase based on the supply/demand balance. Most came down on the side of “need” and suggested that the increase would fail. We were not so pessimistic.
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